xG And The Golden Boot Race
With the Premier League season approaching the final stages, there is still plenty to be decided. With Manchester City in pole position for another title charge though, the individual prizes such as the top goal scorer award could be the most interesting contests. With that in mind, what can stats such as Expected Goals (xG) tell us about who is best placed to win the prize?
The Growth of xG
The metric has become popular in coaching and analytics, working its way into the mainstream media in the past few years. It’s even part of Match of the Day’s coverage of the Premier League these days. Although it is an estimate based on historical data, xG is often cited as a way to judge the quality of chances that a team are creating over the medium or long term, rather than simply counting stats such as total shots, or shots on target.
Aside from the league winner and relegation, the race – often known as the Golden Boot – is one of the most popular angles to every Premier League season. The Best betting sites offer odds on the market before a ball is kicked all the way until the final round of matches get underway. Each way betting is often available too, so punters can get a return if their pick finishes in the top few spots.
Salah Leads the Way
Mohamed Salah is the frontrunner with 17 goals so far and is the odds-on favourite with most bookies. The Liverpool forward has been a contender for the Golden Boot in most years since his move to Anfield, winning it twice in the past five seasons. xG suggests the Egypt international has 3.08 goals more than expected, given the position of the shots taken. Of course, this could simply be an indicator of an elite finisher compared to “average” player from the division.
Bruno Fernandes is a similar story with 3.12 goals more than his xG tally. Manchester United’s talisman has also contributed 10 assists so far, an emphatic haul for his first full season in the top flight. The question now, looks to be if he can maintain his goalscoring form in the final third of the campaign.
Tottenham Pair in the Mix
The biggest “overperformer” in terms of actual goals compared to xG is Tottenham’s Heung-Min Son. With 13 goals so far, he’s outperforming his estimate by 4.52 goals. Another Spurs player could be set for a big end to the season though.
Harry Kane has 14 goals but at a much more sustainable rate based on this metric. The England international has regularly finished campaigns with an emphatic goal scoring streak. In 2016-17 Kane scored seven goals in the final two games of the season to overhaul Romelu Lukaku and retain the Golden Boot award. At 5/1 he could be the popular pick for those looking for bigger returns.
Vardy Could Profit from Leicester’s European Exit
Few expected Leicester to lose out against Sparta Prague in the Europa League. Now that they have though, Jamie Vardy (14/1) could be set for a fruitful end to the domestic season. Having undergone hernia surgery in January, the 34-year-old has looked back to his best in recent weeks. Indeed, Vardy is actually underperforming in terms of goals scored compared to xG, which suggests he would have typically scored 2.54 goals more than his current total of 12. The Foxes will re-focus their efforts on finishing in the Champions League places and still have to play three of the current bottom four teams at home before the end of the season. If Vardy can remain fit, he could make a late charge at retaining the award he won a year ago after netting 23 goals in 2019/20.